Bitcoin Surges Past $111,300 as Trump Signals China Trade Deal

By Jake Thompson | Updated October 30, 2025

Key Points: Bitcoin rebounded to $111,300 on October 30, 2025, after President Trump announced tariff cuts on China from 20% to 10% following his meeting with Xi Jinping in Busan, South Korea. Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One that a trade deal could happen "pretty soon" and rated the meeting a "12 out of 10." Despite the rally, analysts warn that macroeconomic uncertainty remains high, with the Federal Reserve's mixed signals on future rate cuts and China's lack of official confirmation adding volatility. Bitcoin is still down 2% over 24 hours, having dropped to $108,500 before recovering.

Key Facts at a Glance

Current Bitcoin Price: $111,301
24-Hour Low: $108,500
24-Hour Price Change: -2%
Trump-Announced Tariff Cut: From 20% to 10%
Meeting Location: Busan, South Korea
Meeting Date: October 29, 2025
Trump's Meeting Rating: "12 out of 10"
Fed Rate Cut: 25 basis points (October 29, 2025)

Introduction

Picture this: Bitcoin plummeting to $108,500 as traders nervously watched Trump and Xi Jinping wrap up their high-stakes meeting in South Korea with no joint press conference. Then, boom—Trump boards Air Force One and drops a bombshell about slashing China tariffs in half. Suddenly, Bitcoin rockets back above $111,300. Welcome to crypto in 2025, where a presidential quote from 30,000 feet can move billions of dollars in minutes.

What Happened During the Trump-Xi Meeting in Busan?

Trump met with Chinese President Xi Jinping on October 29, 2025, in Busan, South Korea. The meeting concluded without the typical joint press conference, which initially spooked markets.

Presto Research Associate Min Jung told The Block that traders had already priced in most expectations. The absence of a formal announcement signaled no major breakthrough was coming.

Bitcoin initially dropped as the meeting ended with silence. Then everything changed when Trump started talking to reporters on his flight home.

Why Did Bitcoin Price Jump to $111,300?

Trump announced aboard Air Force One that the U.S. would cut tariffs on China from 20% to 10%. According to AP News, these tariffs were originally imposed as punishment for selling fentanyl-related chemicals.

The president didn't stop there. He told reporters a trade deal with China could arrive "pretty soon" and rated the meeting success as a "12" on a scale of zero to 10.

The Independent reported Trump also claimed "all rare earth issues" have been settled with China. He added there are no more roadblocks from China to reach a comprehensive trade deal.

Markets loved the optimism. Bitcoin climbed from its $108,500 low back above $111,300 within hours.

What Are the Concerns About This Bitcoin Rally?

Not everyone's popping champagne just yet. Derek Lim, research lead at Caladan, pointed out a critical gap: "We have only heard what Trump said, China hasn't come out to confirm anything."

Lim emphasized that issues like rare earth minerals need official confirmation from Beijing. Until China releases its own statement, uncertainty remains baked into the market.

The Federal Reserve added another layer of complexity on October 29, 2025. While the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, Chair Jerome Powell noted uncertainty about another cut in December.

Even more surprising, some FOMC members voted against any rate cut at all. "This brought about uncertainty to the markets," Lim explained.

How Does Macroeconomic Uncertainty Affect Cryptocurrency Markets?

Vincent Liu, CIO at Kronos Research, brought traders back to reality with a dose of cold water. He argued that near-term Bitcoin price movements will depend more on liquidity and macro positioning than headlines alone.

"Positioning and liquidity will drive near-term moves, with inflation surprises likely to spark sharper crypto volatility," Liu stated. Translation: Don't bet the farm on Trump's Air Force One quotes just yet.

Caladan's Lim pointed out another challenge for traders hunting the next catalyst. The major bullish factors—positive market structure, rate cuts, and the end of quantitative tightening—are already in play.

Without a fresh catalyst on the horizon, Bitcoin could trade sideways or face renewed volatility. Traders are essentially flying blind until China confirms Trump's claims or the Fed provides clearer guidance on December's meeting.

What Should Bitcoin Traders Watch Next?

The most immediate question: Will China confirm Trump's version of events? Beijing's official response could either validate the rally or send Bitcoin tumbling back toward support levels.

Traders should also monitor the Federal Reserve's December meeting signals. Powell's hesitation about future cuts suggests the central bank sees inflation risks that could limit monetary easing.

Liquidity conditions remain critical. Liu's emphasis on positioning over headlines means traders need to watch order book depth and derivative markets for clues about institutional sentiment.

Rare earth mineral agreements deserve attention too. If Trump's claims hold up, reduced trade tensions could benefit risk assets broadly, including cryptocurrencies.

Factor	Bullish Signal	Bearish Signal
China Confirmation	Official statement supporting deal	Denial or silence from Beijing
Fed Policy	Clear path to December cut	Hawkish inflation concerns
Liquidity	Institutional buying increases	Derivative markets show deleveraging
Trade Progress	Rare earth deal confirmed	Negotiations stall or reverse

What This Means for Cryptocurrency Markets

This rollercoaster 24 hours perfectly captures crypto's 2025 reality: massive price swings driven by geopolitical theater and central bank uncertainty. Bitcoin's bounce from $108,500 to $111,300 shows the market still responds powerfully to macro headlines.

But here's the thing traders need to understand. Trump's Air Force One sound bites aren't the same as a signed trade agreement on official letterhead from Beijing. Until Xi Jinping's government confirms these deals, Bitcoin is trading on hope rather than hard facts.

The Federal Reserve's mixed messaging compounds the uncertainty. A 25-basis-point cut sounds bullish until you realize some officials voted against it entirely and Powell can't promise another cut in December.

Smart money is watching liquidity flows and positioning, not just headlines. Liu's warning about inflation surprises sparking sharper volatility rings especially true when you consider how quickly Bitcoin dropped before Trump started talking. That $3,000 swing in hours? That's your preview of what could happen if China contradicts Trump's version or if the Fed turns hawkish.

The silver lining: Major bullish catalysts are already active. Market structure remains positive, rate cuts are happening (even if uncertain), and quantitative tightening is ending. Bitcoin doesn't need a China trade deal to climb—but it sure doesn't need China to deny one either.

Final Takeaway: Bitcoin's rally to $111,300 reflects optimism about Trump's announced China tariff cuts from 20% to 10%, but the 2% daily decline and analyst warnings highlight significant uncertainty until Beijing confirms the deal and the Fed clarifies December rate plans.

About Spino: Spino delivers real-time crypto market intelligence and blockchain research for traders and investors worldwide. For more research on Bitcoin price movements and macroeconomic impacts, visit spino.io.

Sources:

• The Block Bitcoin Price Page
• AP News (Trump China tariff announcement)
• The Independent (Trump rare earth statement)
• Presto Research (Min Jung analyst comments)
• Caladan Research (Derek Lim analyst comments)
• Kronos Research (Vincent Liu analyst comments)
• Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting Minutes (October 29, 2025)

Frequently Asked Questions About Bitcoin's Trump-Rally